Publications

Research on the relationship between oil wealth and economic growth has shown that the impact of oil can depend on various factors or conditions. However, the role of the underground economy in this relationship remains underexplored. This study aims to fill this gap by examining how the underground economy influences the oil wealth-growth nexus in Nigeria from 1990 to 2022, using the bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds-testing technique. The empirical findings reveal that the effect of oil wealth on economic growth varies with the size of the underground economy. Specifically, the results indicate that the marginal impact of oil wealth on growth is positive when the underground economy is relatively small, but becomes negative as the underground economy expands. This suggests that the underground economy serves as a channel through which oil wealth negatively affects long-term economic growth. The economic implication of this finding is that for sustained long-term growth, increases in oil wealth must be accompanied by significant efforts to reduce the size of the underground economy.

This study employs the recently proposed bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, augmented with a Fourier function, and the dynamic ARDL simulation procedures, to examine whether the oil price economic growth relationship depends on the level of corruption in an oil-dependent economy. Using Nigerian quarterly data from the 1996Q1–2021Q4 period, the results of the bounds-testing provide evidence of cointegration between the variables. In addition, the results indicate that oil price and corruption are growth-enhancing, but the effect of oil price on growth is contingent on the level of corruption. Moreover, evidence suggests that the marginal effect of oil price on economic growth varies with the level of corruption: the lower the level of corruption, the higher the growth-enhancing effect of oil price on economic growth, and vice versa. The dynamic ARDL simulation plots demonstrate a significant increase (decrease) in predicted growth in the short term due to a counterfactual rise in the price of oil (corruption), which gradually deflates (increases) after the shock in the long term. Therefore, policies geared toward diversifying the economy away from oil, reducing corruption in the oil and gas industry and the security sector, improving agricultural output, and reducing the unemployment rate are recommended to enhance growth.

Utilizing a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model, this study aims to find out if the shadow economy's (SE) effect on Malaysia's economic growth is not linear from 1970 to 2022. This model uniquely identifies potential nonlinearities or asymmetries in the relationship between SE and growth. The results of the bounds tests show that there is a strong long-term link between economic growth and both good and bad changes in the SE, as well as variables like inflation, urban population growth in cities, financial development, and economic uncertainty. Furthermore, the results indicate that the SE’s influence on growth is nonlinear, both in the short and long term. In particular, both growing and shrinking the SE have positive effects on growth, but growing the SE has a bigger long-term effect than shrinking it. Conversely, in the short term, reductions in the SE’s size have a greater impact. Additionally, inflation, urban population growth, financial development, and economic uncertainties emerge as key determinants of growth across both time horizons. These findings suggest the need for policies that reduce the size of the shadow economy and encourage the shift from informal to formal economic activities to foster sustained economic growth.

The study assesses external debt’s impact on MINT countries’ (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkiye) manufacturing sector’s performance during the 1980–2021 period, using dynamic heterogeneous panel methods (i.e. dynamic fixed effects, mean group, and pooled mean group estimators). The findings portray the presence of long-term relation between external debt and manufacturing performance (alongside external debt service, inflation rate, population size, exchange rate, FDI, and agricultural output) based on the Kao’s residual cointegration test. The empirical outcomes portray a dampening impact of external debt on manufacturing sector’s performance during the short and long term. Moreover, external debt servicing, FDI, population size, and inflation rate promote the sector’s performance, but exchange rate (depreciation) hurts manufacturing performance. Furthermore, the Dumitrescu-Hurlin heterogeneous panel causality test portrays a one-way causality from external debt servicing (and exchange rate) to manufacturing sector’s performance and a two-way causality between manufacturing sector and population (and FDI and agricultural output). Thus, policies aimed at lowering external debt, lessening exchange rate variability and inflation rate, and boosting inward FDI are recommended to promote the sector’s performance.

This study examines whether the effect of oil prices on economic growth is influenced by the level of corruption. I focus on 30 oil-rich economies and employ dynamic heterogeneous panel estimation techniques to address the issue of cross-sectional dependence. Evidence from the study reveals that the impact of oil prices on growth varies with corruption levels. Specifically, the marginal effect of oil prices on growth is positive at low levels of corruption but hampers immediate and long-term growth at high levels of corruption. Essentially, the results indicate that a simultaneous increase in oil prices and corruption impairs growth, whereas increase in oil prices coupled with a reduction in corruption benefits the economy more. Using a disaggregated sample of countries based on their corruption levels, the results suggest that the adverse effect of simultaneous increases in oil prices and corruption is more pronounced in oil-rich countries with higher levels of corruption compared to those with lower levels. The study implies that the level of corruption is a crucial factor in how changes in oil prices impact long-term growth in oil-rich economies. Therefore, for sustainable long-term economic growth, an increase in oil prices must be accompanied by a significant reduction in corruption.

Over the past three decades, Nigeria has experienced unstable domestic investment and direct foreign investment inflows, and the country continues to face rising corruption and related problems. An ARDL technique has been adopted to explore long-term FDI impact on domestic investment including evaluating if FDI-domestic investment nexus is dependent on corruption level in Nigeria over this period. The bounds test result shows an evidence of a long-term relation amongst FDI, domestic investment and corruption (including GDP per capita, lending rate, exchange rate and oil price). We find that increasing inward FDI reduces (crowds-out) domestic investment and greater corruption control (lowering corruption level) leads to higher domestic investment in Nigeria over the long-term. Also, the influence of FDI on domestic investment depends on (or varies with) corruption level. FDI crowds-in domestic investment at greater corruption control than at lesser corruption control in the long-term. Other significant long-term influencers of domestic investment are exchange rate and oil price. Given these outcomes, we offer some recommendations to boost domestic investment in Nigeria.

This study examines the asymmetric effect of the shadow economy on environmental pollution in Egypt during the 1970 and 2022 period. Using the bootstrap nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) bounds-testing approach, the study presents evidence of nonlinear cointegrating relationship between environmental degradation (carbon emission) and shadow economic activities (alongside globalisation, urbanisation, GDP per capita, and industrial growth). In addition, the results demonstrate that the impact of the shadow economy (SE) on environmental pollution (ENV) is nonlinear, with the positive shock in shadow economy promoting environmental degradation and negative shocks promoting environmental quality, both in the short- and long-run. However, the study discovered that the magnitude of the impact of the SE on ENV is larger in the short-run. This is further validated by the dynamic ARDL simulation technique which demonstrates that the immediate effect of the SE on ENV is large. Additionally, the results suggest that income growth, urbanisation, and industrial growth are important drivers of environmental pollution. Therefore, the study recommends the adoption, and most importantly, implementation, of policies and strategies geared towards reducing the shadow economy, and consequently environmental pollution.

Purpose: Despite the huge financial resources associated with oil, Nigeria has consistently recorded poor growth performance. Therefore, this study aims to examine how corruption and oil rent influence Nigeria’s economic performance during the 1996–2021 period.
Design/methodology/approach: Various estimation techniques were used. These include the bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds-testing, dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), the fully modified OLS (FMOLS) and the canonical cointegration regression (CCR) estimators and the Toda–Yamamoto causality.
Findings: The bounds testing results provide evidence of a cointegrating relationship between the variables. In addition, the results of the ARDL, DOLS, CCR and FMOLS estimators demonstrate that oil rent and corruption have a significant positive impact on growth. Further, the results indicate that human capital and financial development enhance economic growth, whereas domestic investment and unemployment rates slow down long-term growth. Additionally, the causality test results illustrate the presence of a one-way causality from oil rent to economic growth and a bi-directional causal relationship between corruption and economic growth.
Originality/value: Existing studies focused on the effects of either oil rent or corruption on growth in Nigeria. Little attention has been paid to the exploration of how the rent from oil and the pervasiveness of corruption contribute to the performance of the Nigerian economy. Based on the outcome of this study, strategies and policies geared towards reducing oil dependence and the pervasiveness of corruption, enhancing human capital and financial development and reducing unemployment are recommended.

We employ dynamic heterogeneous panel estimation techniques which include Dynamic Fixed Effects (DFE), Mean Group (MG), and Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimators to explore the underground economy (UE) and financial inclusion (FI) relation for ten West African nations during the 2004-2021 period. Applying Pedroni cointegration test, the results present evidence of a long-term relation between UE and FI (alongside corruption, inflation rate, money supply, agricultural output, and trade). The results of panel estimation portray a long-term significant positive influence of FI on UE, but a short-term significant negative relation between FI and UE. In addition, corruption, money supply, and international trade have a long-term significant negative influence on UE, while inflation supports long-term expansion of UE. Also, a short-term significant negative relation exists between inflation (and trade) and UE, while a short-term significant positive relation is found between money supply and UE. The results of Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test signal a one-way causality from FI to UE. Therefore, policies geared towards enhancing FI, reducing corruption and money supply, and improving international trade are recommended to reduce UE.

Purpose: Despite the vulnerability of rapidly developing and emerging market economies, researchers have paid less attention to the determination of the size of money laundering (ML) in these economies, including the United Arab Emirates (the UAE). Therefore, this paper aims to estimate the magnitude of ML in the UAE between 1975 and 2020 based on the currency demand approach (CDA).
Design/methodology/approach: The study uses the Gregory–Hansen cointegration technique alongside the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing procedure to estimate the CDA model.
Findings: The results illustrate that an amount equivalent to about 19.034% of the GDP is laundered in the UAE between 1975 and 2020, on average, with the value lying between 15.129% and 23.121%. In addition, the results demonstrate the importance of the real estate market, gold trade, remittance channels and the size of the underground economy in facilitating the laundering of illicit funds in the country.
Originality/value: To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the study is a pioneering attempt at estimating the amount of illicit funds laundered in the UAE. Besides, the adoption of a novel, yet robust, approach based on the modification of the CDA technique also sets the study apart as it ensures a correct, clear, unambiguous and indisputable estimate of the magnitude of ML is obtained. In addition, it is expected that the outcome of the study will expand the frontiers of knowledge among policymakers and relevant agencies and ensure the adoption of the most efficient and effective measures to curb the ML menace in the country.

This study employs the logistic regression method to examine the effect of financial inclusion on the level of poverty in Niger State of Nigeria based on cross-sectional data randomly collected from 624 respondents across 224 towns and villages in 12 local government areas (LGAs) of the state. The estimation results illustrate that financial inclusion (proxied by bank account ownership, including access to bank, credit, and mobile phone) is significantly and negatively related to the level of poverty. This empirical outcome is further validated by the results of the Probit regression technique which show a significant negative relationship between financial inclusion and poverty in the state. Based on these empirical findings, the study recommends policies which include broadening bank coverage, softening credit requirements, and enhancement of people’s access to mobile phone and internet services in rural areas of Niger state.

This study employs the bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach alongside the dynamic ARDL simulations technique to investigate the non-linear effect of public debt on public expenditure in Nigeria during the 1981–2020 period. The result of the bootstrap bounds test illustrates the presence of a long-term relationship between public expenditure and public debt (along with oil rents, output growth and urbanisation). Further, the estimation results indicate that the effect of public debt on public expenditure is non-linear. In particular, public expenditure increases at early stages of rising public debt but declines at latter phases when public debt grows beyond specific threshold. This empirical outcome is further validated by the dynamic ARDL simulations approach which shows a significant decline in predicted public expenditure after short-term expansion due to counterfactual shock in public debt. Thus, policies which diversify public revenue from oil production and a reversal of the rising trend in public debt are recommended to avert the adverse welfare implications of declining public expenditure.

One of Nigeria’s greatest challenges is the generation of adequate tax revenue to meet her rising expenditure, and the country has continued to contend with corruption, particularly in its public sector. We employ the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) technique to examine tax revenue behaviour amid corruption using Nigeria’s quarterly data over the 1999-2019 period. The result of the NARDL bounds test to cointegration demonstrates the presence of a long-run relationship between tax revenue and corruption along with income level, agriculture, inflation rate, foreign aid and female labour force participation. The results of estimation indicate the existence of asymmetry in tax revenue behaviour. We find evidence of a significant positive impact of negative changes in the control of corruption and a significant negative effect of positive changes in the control of corruption on tax revenue in the long run. Other long-run significant determinants of tax revenue in Nigeria include income level, foreign aid and female labour force participation. Based on these empirical outcomes, this study offers some recommendations.

We employ the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) approach to examine if the oil price and public expenditure relationship are dependent on the level of corruption using Nigeria’s quarterly data during the 1996-2019 period. The result of the NARDL-bounds test to co-integration demonstrates that there is a long-run relationship between the variables, and we found evidence of long-run asymmetry in this relationship. The estimation results indicate that both positive and negative shocks to oil price have a significant positive effect on public expenditure in the long run, and the impact of oil price on public expenditure depends on the level of corruption. In addition, the marginal effect of oil price on public expenditure varies at different levels of corruption. Other important factors that drive public expenditure in Nigeria, in the long run, include spending on internal security and debt service. Based on these outcomes, we proffer some policy recommendations.

This study assesses the effect of COVID-19 proxied by the number of confirmed cases of the infection and deaths on Nigeria’s stock market over the 23rd March to 11th September 2020 period using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), canonical cointegrating regression (CCR), dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) techniques. The bounds test to cointegration result reveals that a long-run relationship exists between COVID-19 and Nigeria’s stock market (along with oil prices and exchange rate). The results of the various estimations demonstrate that COVID-19 (proxied by the number of confirmed cases of infection) has a negative and significant impact on stock market performance, while the number deaths has a positive and significant impact on the market in the long-run. In addition, oil prices and exchange rate have a significant and positive effect on stock market performance in the long-run. Similar results were found for sub-sectors including consumer goods and healthcare sub-sectors of the stock market. The study recommends policies to curb the spread of the virus.

This study employs ARDL bounds testing technique to examine the effect of financial inclusion on inclusive growth in Nigeria, using quarterly data from 2007-2018. The empirical evidence reveals the presence of cointegration between financial inclusion indicators (account ownership, access to bank, ATM and credit, loans to SMEs and internet usage) and inclusive growth (poverty, household expenditure, employment, and per capita income). The results demonstrate that, while increase in account ownership, and access to bank and ATM raise poverty, and access to credit, loans to SMEs and internet usage reduces employment and per capita income in the long-run, it was also discovered that access to credit reduce poverty and increase household consumption, while account ownership and access to bank increases employment and per capita income in the long-run. In the short-run: lag of account ownership, access to ATM and credit, loan to SMEs and internet usage reduces poverty; lag of household expenditure, account ownership, and access to ATM and lag of internet usage increases household expenditure; lags of access to ATM and lags of internet usage (and account ownership and access to the bank) increases employment opportunities (and per capita income), and access to ATM and credit reduces employment and per capita income respectively.

This study employs the cross sectional survey research design and the descriptive and ordinary least square regressions to examine the impact of Electronic-Payment Systems on the financial performance of Microfinance Banks and Institutions in Niger state, Nigeria. The results of the analysis indicate the presence of e-payment systems in the bank, which enjoys impressive acceptability, due to its ease of use and convenience. In addition, ATM facility, Internet payment options, e-payment cards, and mobile banking platforms shows a significant positive impact on the financial performance of COE-Minna microfinance bank. In essence, the improvement and review of e-payment platforms’ security, so as to attract more users, coupled with the reduction of charges associated with the use of the platforms as well as sensitization of potential users were recommended.

Purpose of the study: The study aims is to examine the effect of trade openness on inflation rate in Nigeria.
Methodology: Time series data were collected from secondary sources. EViews10 (statistical software for data analysis) ware employed to analyze the data collected.
Findings: The results revealed a cointegrating and one-way Granger causality between inflation rate, and trade openness. In addition, both the short-run and the long-run results demonstrate a significant and negative relationship between inflation rate and trade openness in Nigeria.
Application: The study is paramount to the government and policymakers in dealing and taking a decision regarding consumer price index and trade openness in Nigeria. We conclude that the government should work towards full diversification and diversion of the economy from oil export, control, and management of the degree of trade liberalization and the extent to which goods enter the country, and the control of money supplied.
Novelty/Originality: The study accorded to debate on the inflation rate, and trade openness in Nigeria looking, at both short-run and long-run effects, before few accessible studies focused on impact, and trade openness was not measured as the value of net export divided by gross domestic product. Finally, the paper contributed to the scanty of the literature.

This study employs the ARDL bound testing technique to empirically investigate the impact of prudent macroeconomic management on poverty reduction in Nigeria from 1980 to 2017. Empirical results indicates the existence of co-integrating (long-run) relationship between poverty and macro-economic variables (economic growth, inflation rate, exchange rate, employment rate, Balance of Payments, loan and credit, lending interest rate, agricultural sector’s growth, and democracy). In addition, the results demonstrate that in the short-run, the past value of poverty rate, economic growth, exchange rate, Balance of Payments, and lending interest rate have a significant negative impact on poverty, while employment rate impact poverty positively in the short-run. Therefore, recommended the policy makers should put in place police programmes that will increase the growth of Nigerian economy by increasing effective loan and credit, employment and jobs, Balance of Payments surplus, agricultural growth, and democracy while reducing and stabilizing the general price level, exchange rate, and lending interest rate.

Though poverty is multi-facet, a program designed to alleviate poverty by way of providing food for the citizens to eat, access to education, adequate shelter, health, and protection from violence etc. is obviously an action of change. An example of such program is the MDGs which strive to halve poverty and hunger before the end of 2015. With the startling increase in poverty in Nigeria, even with the locally designed policies and programs to compliment the achievement of the MDGs, a need to assess the influence of the program on poverty eradication is therefore necessary. As such this study utilized the OLS technique to analyze the MDGs indices within 2000 – 2015, and incorporating the ODA received, government expenditure, population with access to clean water, agricultural growth and economic growth. The results therefore demonstrate that ODA, government expenditure, growth of the economy, and access to clean water poses significant negative effect on poverty and hunger in the country. However, adoption of the SDGs, measure to curb funds mismanagement, ODA inflow enhancement and plans that will boost the growth of the economy are recommended.

This study employs Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to co-integration and Granger causality technique to empirically examines the nature of relationship between infant mortality and public expenditure on health in Nigeria from 1980 – 2016. In addition, the study considers the roles of immunization, private health expenditure and external health resources on infant mortality in Nigeria. Among other things, the empirical results indicate the presence of significant conintegrating (long-run) relationship between infant mortality and government health expenditure (and private health expenditure, immunization and external health resources), coupled with the existence of bi-directional causal relationship between infant mortality and government health expenditure. In addition, the results also demonstrate that, government health expenditure, private health expenditure, immunization, and external health resources significantly influence infant mortality negatively both in the long and short term. Although, private health spending is shown as the major determinant of the reduction of infant mortality rate in Nigeria, due to the size of the coefficient of private health expenditure. In essence, the total overhaul of the Nigerian health sector, so as to improve the efficiency of the sector, as well curb the incidents of fund mismanagement which has plagued the sector overtime, coupled with the intensifying of immunization programs and activities are however recommended.

The paper investigates the determinants of energy use in Lapai Local government area of Niger state, Nigeria using a cross-sectional data randomly collected from 117 respondents in the Lapai. Employing the descriptive statistics and Multinomial Logistics regression model to capture the characteristics of the respondents and the determining factors of energy use in Lapai respective. The empirical result obtained revealed that people use more of the traditional energy sources (firewood and charcoal) because of its availability and affordability. Income level, family size, educational status, and occupational status are the major determinants of the use of the modern energy sources relative to traditional energy sources. The study thus recommends The Government through ministry of power and environment should come up with suitable policies that will shift the attention of using biomass energy source to modern energy source, Government and environmental agencies should introduce safe and sufficient energy source in other to reduce burden on the use of biomass in the country so as to reduce the level of pollution and erosion. The actions of the local government authorities towards the improvement in the availability and access to modern energy source so as to reduce the use of traditional energy sources as well as improvement in the income level and access to education of individuals in the local government.

In assessing the influence of religiosity on entrepreneurial intention, and considering other factors such as family entrepreneurial background, personal attitude towards entrepreneurship, societal norms and perceived self-efficacy, the study employed Logistics regression model to analyze 100 cross-sectional data obtained from graduates and undergraduates of economics and business administration. The empirical result indicates that religiosity influence entrepreneurial intentions positively. Equally, the demonstrate the presence of a positive relationship between personal attitude towards entrepreneurship and societal norms, and a negative correlation between self-efficacy and entrepreneurial intentions. The intensity of religious teachings towards enhancing moral values in business and entrepreneurial intentions and the provision of loans and creation of enabling a business environment for intending entrepreneurs therefore recommended.

The nature of the relationship between the twin problem of poverty and unemployment has been unclear recently. Although the nature of the relationship has received more extensive scholarly attention worldwide and even in Nigeria, no study raised on the nature of its relationship in the region (state) which might produce an inverse relationship different from the proportionate obtained in previous studies. Hence the study on the relationship between poverty and unemployment in Niger state, Nigeria, using descriptive and a logistics regression model to analyze the 102 cross-sectional data randomly collected from the three geopolitical regions in the state. The result thus shows the existence of a proportionate relationship between poverty and unemployment, following the pattern of previous studies. The study thus recommends the actions of the policymakers in creating vocational skill programs to aid and curb the unemployment problem in the state. Accordingly, the increase in expenditure on education and the minimum wage as well recommended.

The introduction of the zoning system into Nigeria political space was to aid the smooth rotation of key political positions across the country. This policy is to achieve fairness, peace and equitable distribution of resource. Its adverse effect on the economy is thus something to worry about. Therefore, the study examines the effect of democratic zoning system on the economy of Nigeria, with special reference to Niger state. Employing descriptive statistics and multiple regressions. The results revealed that the elements of democratic zoning vis-à-vis; peace, equity, unity and justice has a positive and significant effect on the growth of the Nigeria economy. The authors thus recommends the government at both levels should focus on providing simultaneous development projects to pave way for peace and unity, zoning system should be incorporated into the Nigeria constitution, unbiased and equitable distribution of resources across the economy.

Rising population is an asset, provided, the skills of the workforce are used to the maximum extent. If not appropriately channelized, it can be a liability for a nation. A skilled and hardworking population can emerge as a foundation for a country’s development. This study examines the validity of Malthusian Theory in Nigeria using time series data from 1960 to 2016, employs the ARDL bound test techniques. The result shows that in the long-run, population growth and food production move proportionately, while population growth poses a depleting effect on food production in the short-run, thus validating the incidence of Malthusian impact in Nigerian economy in the short-run. The researcher recommended the government should strategize plans, which will further intensify family planning and birth control measure, compulsory western education and revitalization of the agricultural sector.

The paper investigates the determinants of exchange rate in Nigeria using times series data ranging from 1980 to 2016 and employing the Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) to separate the long-run determinants of exchange rate from its short-run determinants. The result from the dynamic model reveals that changes in domestic price level, interest rate differentials, trade openness, government purchases of tradable and non-tradable goods and capital inflow are the major long-run determinants of exchange rate in Nigeria while changes in the domestic price level, interest rate differentials and capital inflow are the major short-run determinants of exchange rate in Nigeria. The study recommended the actions of the monetary authorities towards the maintenance of relative low and stable price level, interest rate capable of attracting foreign investors and the design and implementation of trade policies which tend to increase the inflow of capital from abroad.