Joseph David

Joseph David

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Implementation of the Fractional Frequency Flexible Fourier Form ARDL in EViews

Today, I will be providing a rather brief post on the process of implementing the Fourier ARDL bounds testing approach which I applied in my recent paper entitled “The moderating role of corruption in the oil price-economic growth relationship in an oil-dependent economy: Evidence from Bootstrap ARDL with a Fourier Function”.

Presenting results from an arbitrary number of models

The combination of tidyr::nest() and purrr:map() can be used to easily fit the same model to different subsets of a single dataframe. There are many tutorials available to help guide you through this process. There are substantially fewer (none I’ve been able to find) that show you how to use these two functions to fit the same model to different features from your dataframe.

Regular expressions for replication

As part of the publication process for my recent article on how states preempt separatist conflict, I needed to submit replication materials to the journal. I took my graduate quantitative methods sequence with the late Tom Carsey, so I’ve long been a proponent replicability efforts in social science. I also had an hourly job in grad school replicating quantitative results for multiple political science journals, so I’m very familiar with best practices for replication. Unfortunately, in the four years since I wrote the first line of code for this project, somewhere in between defending my dissertation and starting a new job (ok, fine, almost immediately after writing that first line of code), I got a little lazy.

Faceted maps in R

I recently needed to create a choropleth of a few different countries for a project on targeting of UN peacekeepers by non-state armed actors I’m working on. A choropleth is a type of thematic map where data are aggregated up from smaller areas (or discrete points) to larger ones and then visualized using different colors to represent different numeric values.

Finding Backcountry Campsites with CalTopo, OpenStreetMap, and R

Like many people, I’ve been spending more time outdoors during this pandemic. While this means daily walks in my neighborhood, it also means getting out into the wilderness and sleeping in a tent when I can. Although outdoor recreation is one of the safer ways to entertain yourself these days, it’s not without its own concerns. The difficulty of safely getting to trailheads means that while I’m backpacking more than usual, it’s still not as often as I’d like.

R Markdown, Jekyll, and Footnotes

I use jekyll to create my website. Jekyll converts Markdown files into the HTML that your browser renders into the pages you see. As others and I have written before, it’s pretty easy to use R Markdown to generate pages with R code and output all together. One thing has consistently eluded me, however: footnotes.

Working with Large Spatial Data in R

In my research I frequently work with large datasets. Sometimes that means datasets that cover the entire globe, and other times it means working with lots of micro-level event data. Usually, my computer is powerful enough to load and manipulate all of the data in R without issue. When my computer’s fallen short of the task at hand, my solution has often been to throw it at a high performance computing cluster. However, I finally ran into a situation where the data proved too large even for that approach.

Jekyll and HTML Widgets

I’m currently compiling a list of university-affiliated programs designed to help prepare students for graduate study in political science and assist them in the process of applying to graduate school (a labyrinthine and opaque process in many regards). Since travel costs can be a deciding factor for some students when deciding whether to apply to these programs, I thought it would be nice to also put them on a map.

Extracting UN Peacekeeping Data from PDF Files

Some coauthors and I recently published a piece in the Monkey Cage on the recent military coup in Mali and the overthrow of president Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta. We examine what the ouster of Keïta means for the future of MINUSMA, the United Nations peacekeeping mission in Mali. One of my contributions that didn’t make the final cut was this plot of casualties to date among UN peacekeepers in the so-called big 5 peacekeeping missions .

Adding Content to an Academic Website

One thing I haven’t covered in my previous posts on creating and customizing an academic website is how to actually add content to your site. You know, the stuff that’s the reason why people go to your website in the first place? If you’ve followed those guides, your website should be professional looking and already feeling a little bit different from the stock template. However, adding new pages or tweaking the existing pages can be a little intimidating, and I realized I should probably walk through how to do so. Luckily Jekyll’s use of Markdown makes it really easy to add new content!

Customizing an Academic Website

This is a followup to my previous post on creating an academic website. If you’ve followed that guide, you should have a website that’s professional-looking and informative, but it’s probably lacking something to really make it feel like your own. There are an infinite number of ways you could customize the academicpages template (many of them far, far beyond my abilities) but I’m going to walk you through the process I used to start tweaking my website. The goal here isn’t to tell you how you should personalize your website, but to give you the tools to learn how to implement whatever changes you want to make.

Building an Academic Website

If you’re an academic, you need a website. Obviously I agree with this since you’re reading this on my website, but if you don’t have one, you should get one. Most universities these days provide a free option, usually powered by WordPress (both WashU and UNC use WordPress for their respective offerings). While these sites are quick to set up and come with the prestige of a .edu URL, they have several drawbacks that have been extensively written on.

Visualizing Police Militarization

Much has been written lately about the increasing militarization of US law enforcement. One of the most visible indicators of this shift in recent decades is the increased frequency of tactical gear and equipment worn and carried by police officers. However, this pales in comparison to images of police departments bringing armored vehicles to peaceful protests.

Counting Words in a Snap

14 pt periods. 1.05” margins. 2.1 spaced lines. Times Newer Roman. I’ve seen them all, and I’m tired of trying to catch them. So, I’ve stopped assigning papers in terms of page length and switched to word counts. Unfortunately, counting words is more time-intensive than counting pages.

Better Beamer Presentations the Easy Way

Everyone knows that Beamer makes frankly terrible presentations without a good deal of help. A well crafted Beamer presentation can be a thing of beauty, especially since you can use knitr or R Markdown to automatically generate tables and figures, but it takes a lot of work.

Checking Progress with Bash

I’m currently cleaning and wrangling a large (> 2 billion observations) dataset. Due to its size, I’m running code in batch mode on a remote cluster. Not running interactively makes it harder for me to check on my code’s progress.

Fancy Icons and LaTeX Quirks

I recently updated my CV to add my ORCiD identifier to it up top among the other places to find me online. An ORCiD is an online identifier that persists through any changes to your name, institution, or email address throughout your life.

Combining PDF Documents the Smarter Way

My previous post on combining multiple PDF files had an important caveat that things would end up in the wrong order if you had files with leading ID numbers that started at 1 and ended at 12, you’d end up with PDFs combined in the order 1, 10, 11, 12, 2, 3, …, 9.

Combining PDF Documents

How many times have you found that your institution has access to a digital version of a book you need only to discover that it comes in 15 different PDF files?

publications

[Book Chapter] Infrastructure and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Nigeria

Sakanko, M.A., David, J.† & Yahaya, S.U. (2022). "Infrastructure and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Nigeria&quot. W.O. Ugwuoke, & A.E. Adegoriola (Eds.), Fiscal federalism and infrastructural development in Nigeria (pp. 147-159). Kabod Publishing.

Impact of financial inclusion on poverty reduction in Niger state, Nigeria

Abstract

This study employs the logistic regression method to examine the effect of financial inclusion on the level of poverty in Niger State of Nigeria based on cross-sectional data randomly collected from 624 respondents across 224 towns and villages in 12 local government areas (LGAs) of the state. The estimation results illustrate that financial inclusion (proxied by bank account ownership, including access to bank, credit, and mobile phone) is significantly and negatively related to the level of poverty. This empirical outcome is further validated by the results of the Probit regression technique which show a significant negative relationship between financial inclusion and poverty in the state. Based on these empirical findings, the study recommends policies which include broadening bank coverage, softening credit requirements, and enhancement of people’s access to mobile phone and internet services in rural areas of Niger state.

Abu, N., Sakanko, M.A., David, J.†, Gamal, A.A.M., & Obi, B. (2022). "Impact of financial inclusion on poverty reduction in Niger state, Nigeria." Organizations and Markets in Emerging Economies, 13(2), 89-105. doi: 10.15388/omee.2022.13.88

Estimating the magnitude of money laundering in the United Arab Emirates (UAE): Evidence from the Currency Demand Approach (CDA)

Abstract

Purpose: Despite the vulnerability of rapidly developing and emerging market economies, researchers have paid less attention to the determination of the size of money laundering (ML) in these economies, including the United Arab Emirates (the UAE). Therefore, this paper aims to estimate the magnitude of ML in the UAE between 1975 and 2020 based on the currency demand approach (CDA).
Design/methodology/approach: The study uses the Gregory–Hansen cointegration technique alongside the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing procedure to estimate the CDA model.
Findings: The results illustrate that an amount equivalent to about 19.034% of the GDP is laundered in the UAE between 1975 and 2020, on average, with the value lying between 15.129% and 23.121%. In addition, the results demonstrate the importance of the real estate market, gold trade, remittance channels and the size of the underground economy in facilitating the laundering of illicit funds in the country.
Originality/value: To the best of the authors’ knowledge, the study is a pioneering attempt at estimating the amount of illicit funds laundered in the UAE. Besides, the adoption of a novel, yet robust, approach based on the modification of the CDA technique also sets the study apart as it ensures a correct, clear, unambiguous and indisputable estimate of the magnitude of ML is obtained. In addition, it is expected that the outcome of the study will expand the frontiers of knowledge among policymakers and relevant agencies and ensure the adoption of the most efficient and effective measures to curb the ML menace in the country.

Aljassmi, M., Gamal, A.A.M., Abdul Jalil, N., David, J., & Viswanathan, K.K. (2024). "Estimating the magnitude of money laundering in the United Arab Emirates (UAE): Evidence from the Currency Demand Approach (CDA)." Journal of Money Laundering and Control, 27(2), 332-347. doi: 10.1108/JMLC-02-2023-0043

The moderating role of corruption in the oil price-economic growth relationship in an oil-dependent economy: Evidence from Bootstrap ARDL with a Fourier Function

Abstract

This study employs the recently proposed bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model augmented with a Fourier function and the dynamic ARDL simulation procedures to examine whether the oil price-economic growth relationship is dependent on the level of corruption in an oil-dependent economy. Using Nigerian quarterly data during the 1996Q1-2021Q4 period, the results of the bounds-testing present evidence for cointegration between the variables. In addition, the results indicate that oil price and corruption are growth-enhancing, but the effect of oil price on growth is contingent on the level of corruption. Moreover, evidence suggests that the marginal effect of oil price on economic growth varies with the level of corruption; the lower the level of corruption, the higher the growth-enhancing effect of oil price on economic growth, and vice versa. The dynamic ARDL simulations plots demonstrate the significant increase (decrease)in predicted growth in the short-term due to a counterfactual rise in the price of oil price (corruption), which gradually deflates (increase) after the shock in the long-term. Therefore, policies geared toward diversifying the economy away from oil, reducing corruption in the oil and gas industry and the security sector, improving agricultural output, and reducing unemployment rate are recommended to enhance growth.

David, J., Abu, N., & Owolabi, A. (2024, in press). "The moderating role of corruption in the oil price-economic growth relationship in an oil-dependent economy: Evidence from Bootstrap ARDL with a Fourier Function." Economic Alternatives, Forthcoming.

Financial inclusion and underground economy nexus in West Africa: Evidence from dynamic heterogeneous panel techniques

Abstract

We employ dynamic heterogeneous panel estimation techniques which include Dynamic Fixed Effects (DFE), Mean Group (MG), and Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimators to explore the underground economy (UE) and financial inclusion (FI) relation for ten West African nations during the 2004-2021 period. Applying Pedroni cointegration test, the results present evidence of a long-term relation between UE and FI (alongside corruption, inflation rate, money supply, agricultural output, and trade). The results of panel estimation portray a long-term significant positive influence of FI on UE, but a short-term significant negative relation between FI and UE. In addition, corruption, money supply, and international trade have a long-term significant negative influence on UE, while inflation supports long-term expansion of UE. Also, a short-term significant negative relation exists between inflation (and trade) and UE, while a short-term significant positive relation is found between money supply and UE. The results of Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test signal a one-way causality from FI to UE. Therefore, policies geared towards enhancing FI, reducing corruption and money supply, and improving international trade are recommended to reduce UE.

Sakanko, M.A., David, J.†, Abu, N., & Gamal, A.A.M. (2024). "Financial inclusion and underground economy nexus in West Africa: Evidence from dynamic heterogeneous panel techniques". Economic Change and Restructuring, 57(8). doi: 10.1007/s10644-024-09589-x

Oil rent, corruption and economic growth relationship in Nigeria: evidence from various estimation techniques

Abstract

Purpose: Despite the huge financial resources associated with oil, Nigeria has consistently recorded poor growth performance. Therefore, this study aims to examine how corruption and oil rent influence Nigeria’s economic performance during the 1996–2021 period.
Design/methodology/approach: Various estimation techniques were used. These include the bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds-testing, dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS), the fully modified OLS (FMOLS) and the canonical cointegration regression (CCR) estimators and the Toda–Yamamoto causality.
Findings: The bounds testing results provide evidence of a cointegrating relationship between the variables. In addition, the results of the ARDL, DOLS, CCR and FMOLS estimators demonstrate that oil rent and corruption have a significant positive impact on growth. Further, the results indicate that human capital and financial development enhance economic growth, whereas domestic investment and unemployment rates slow down long-term growth. Additionally, the causality test results illustrate the presence of a one-way causality from oil rent to economic growth and a bi-directional causal relationship between corruption and economic growth.
Originality/value: Existing studies focused on the effects of either oil rent or corruption on growth in Nigeria. Little attention has been paid to the exploration of how the rent from oil and the pervasiveness of corruption contribute to the performance of the Nigerian economy. Based on the outcome of this study, strategies and policies geared towards reducing oil dependence and the pervasiveness of corruption, enhancing human capital and financial development and reducing unemployment are recommended.

David, J., Gamal, A.A.M., Mohd Noor, M.A. & Zakariya, Z. (2024). "Oil rent, corruption and economic growth relationship in Nigeria: evidence from various estimation techniques". Journal of Money Laundering Control, Vol. ahead-of-print No. ahead-of-print. doi:https://doi.org/10.1108/JMLC-10-2023-0160

Asymmetric effect of shadow economy on environmental pollution in Egypt: Evidence from Bootstrap NARDL technique

Abstract

This study examines the asymmetric effect of the shadow economy on environmental pollution in Egypt during the 1970 and 2022 period. Using the bootstrap nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) bounds-testing approach, the study presents evidence of nonlinear cointegrating relationship between environmental degradation (carbon emission) and shadow economic activities (alongside globalisation, urbanisation, GDP per capita, and industrial growth). In addition, the results demonstrate that the impact of the shadow economy (SE) on environmental pollution (ENV) is nonlinear, with the positive shock in shadow economy promoting environmental degradation and negative shocks promoting environmental quality, both in the short- and long-run. However, the study discovered that the magnitude of the impact of the SE on ENV is larger in the short-run. This is further validated by the dynamic ARDL simulation technique which demonstrates that the immediate effect of the SE on ENV is large. Additionally, the results suggest that income growth, urbanisation, and industrial growth are important drivers of environmental pollution. Therefore, the study recommends the adoption, and most importantly, implementation, of policies and strategies geared towards reducing the shadow economy, and consequently environmental pollution.

Gamal, A.A.M., David, J.†, Mohd Noor, M.A., Mohd Hussin, M.Y. & Viswanathan, K.K. (2024). "Asymmetric Effect of Shadow Economy on Environmental Pollution in Egypt: Evidence from Bootstrap NARDL Technique". International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 14(3), 206–215. doi: 10.32479/ijeep.15605

Long-term impact of FDI-corruption interaction on domestic investment in Nigeria

Abstract

Over the past three decades, Nigeria has experienced unstable domestic investment and direct foreign investment inflows, and the country continues to face rising corruption and related problems. An ARDL technique has been adopted to explore long-term FDI impact on domestic investment including evaluating if FDI-domestic investment nexus is dependent on corruption level in Nigeria over this period. The bounds test result shows an evidence of a long-term relation amongst FDI, domestic investment and corruption (including GDP per capita, lending rate, exchange rate and oil price). We find that increasing inward FDI reduces (crowds-out) domestic investment and greater corruption control (lowering corruption level) leads to higher domestic investment in Nigeria over the long-term. Also, the influence of FDI on domestic investment depends on (or varies with) corruption level. FDI crowds-in domestic investment at greater corruption control than at lesser corruption control in the long-term. Other significant long-term influencers of domestic investment are exchange rate and oil price. Given these outcomes, we offer some recommendations to boost domestic investment in Nigeria.

Abu, N., Obi, B., Gamal, A.A.M., Abd Karim, M.Z., Sakanko, M.A., & David, J. (2024). "Long-term impact of FDI-corruption interaction on domestic investment in Nigeria". Economic Alternatives, 30(2), 273-292. doi:10.37075/EA.2024.2.04.

External Debt and Manufacturing Sector’s Performance in MINT Countries: Evidence from Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Estimation Techniques

Abstract

The study assesses external debt’s impact on MINT countries’ (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, and Turkiye) manufacturing sector’s performance during the 1980-2021 period, using dynamic heterogeneous panel methods (i.e., Dynamic Fixed Effects, Mean Group, and Pooled Mean Group estimators). The findings portray presence of long-term relation between external debt and manufacturing performance (alongside external debt service, inflation rate, population size, exchange rate, FDI, and agricultural output) based on the Kao’s residual cointegration test. The empirical outcomes portray a dampening impact of external debt on manufacturing sector’s performance during the short- and long-term. Moreover, external debt servicing, FDI, population size, and inflation rate promote the sector’s performance, but exchange rate (depreciation) hurts manufacturing performance. Furthermore, the Dumitrescu-Hurlin heterogeneous panel causality test portrays a one-way causality from external debt servicing (and exchange rate) to manufacturing sector’s performance, and a two-way causality between manufacturing sector and population (and FDI, and agricultural output). Thus, policies aimed at lowering external debt, lessening exchange rate variability and inflation rate, and boosting inward FDI are recommended to promote the sector’s performance.

Abu, N., David, J.†, & Sakanko, M.A. (2024, in press). "External Debt and Manufacturing Sector’s Performance in MINT Countries: Evidence from Dynamic Heterogeneous Panel Estimation Techniques" Journal of the Knowledge Economy. Forthcoming

The role of corruption in the oil price-growth relationship: Insights from oil-rich economies

Abstract

This study examines whether the effect of oil prices on economic growth is influenced by the level of corruption. I focus on 30 oil-rich economies and employ dynamic heterogeneous panel estimation techniques to address the issue of cross-sectional dependence. Evidence from the study reveals that the impact of oil prices on growth varies with corruption levels. Specifically, the marginal effect of oil prices on growth is positive at low levels of corruption but hampers immediate and long-term growth at high levels of corruption. Essentially, the results indicate that a simultaneous increase in oil prices and corruption impairs growth, whereas increase in oil prices coupled with a reduction in corruption benefits the economy more. Using a disaggregated sample of countries based on their corruption levels, the results suggest that the adverse effect of simultaneous increases in oil prices and corruption is more pronounced in oil-rich countries with higher levels of corruption compared to those with lower levels. The study implies that the level of corruption is a crucial factor in how changes in oil prices impact long-term growth in oil-rich economies. Therefore, for sustainable long-term economic growth, an increase in oil prices must be accompanied by a significant reduction in corruption.

David, J. (2024). "The role of corruption in the oil price-growth relationship: Insights from oil-rich economies" Economic Change and Restructuring, 57(246). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10644-024-09808-5

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